News
Predicting Emergency Department Demand |
| Spokesperson: | Australian Healthcare Association |
| Date: | Thursday, 1 February 2007 |
| Category: | Research/Trials |
| Improved resource allocation and strategic planning are potential outcomes of predicting emergency department demand says Professor Terry Mills in the latest edition of the Australian Health Review released today. The Australian Health Review is the policy journal of the Australian Healthcare Association. “The ability to predict the demand for attendance at an emergency department of a hospital is valuable – at micro level for such things as planning rosters for staff and at a macro level for financial and strategic planning for the hospital,” says Prof Mills Forecasting emergency department presentations a study by La Trobe University and Bendigo Health describes how statistical forecasting methods were used to make short-term predictions for monthly ED attendances at one hospital in regional Victoria using data from 2000 to 2005. “Although emergencies are unpredictable events, the attendance patterns at the ED can be predicted. The forecasts provided by the model are shown to compare very well with the actual outcomes. “The forecasting method and approach used in this study can be applied to other hospitals. Predicting demand can potentially improve resource allocation, a central concern for many hospitals coping with resource shortages. “The model can also be applied to analyse finer time series such as hourly ED demand, with accurate prediction in this area potentially facilitating planning of rosters, staff allocation and assistance with bed occupancy. “In addition, ED attendances are indicators for many aspects of health care in the community, and hence, such predictions may be useful for regional health care planning. “Although forecasting models are hospital specific the methods of modelling and data analysis are valuable for other hospitals. This study demonstrates how time series analysis can be applied constructively in a healthcare setting,” says Prof Mills. For comment: Professor Terry Mills, 03 54447288 (work) and 03 54426740 (home) For further information: Sarah Aldridge, 02 6282 2471, 0408 478 818 |
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| W: | www.aushealthreview.com.au |